New Landscape in China's Telecom Market (2) Opportunities and Burdens for New China Mobile
Would existing GSM subscribers be its assets or liabilities?
[+] New China Mobile as the forerunner
In a winner-takes-all market, the forerunner would have considerable leading edge. The New China Mobile with its TD-SCDMA, the New China Unicom with its WCDMA and the new China Telecom with its CDMA2000, which is going to be the forerunner? The bargaining for mergers between operators will last for some time, but the one who completes the merger first might not end up being the forerunner.
Yesterday, I was surprised to see a 3G ad of China Mobile on a Focus Media LCD in an office building in Shanghai. The ad has two implications: 1) 3G video phone is really cool; and 2) at the end of the ad, it is mentioned that TD-SCDMA is being tested, implying that it will be launched soon. The ad indicates that China Mobile is taking the lead.
The ad gives me a few inspirations. First, telecom operators around the world have a common idea in mind when they launch their 3G services: "video phone is a selling point." It seems that Chinese operators are no difference (but they do not know, as a matter of fact, consumers resist the service). The 3G war once waged among telecom operators in Taiwan seems to be about to start once again in the mainland.
Second, it seems that TD-SCDMA would be the last 3G version worldwide. Other versions, including WCDMA and CDMA2000, have been in commercial operation for years and very mature by now. The 3G ad of China Mobile seems to be a forerunner. However, when they could introduce compelling TD-SCDMA offerings is another thing.
[+] New China Mobile faces the same challenges that Hutchison once did
Hutchison is the 3G forerunner worldwide. When Mr. Li Ka-shing tried to develop Three, the telecom operator in Europe, he encountered a lot of challenges from the very beginning. First, with only 3 cell phone models, Three offered consumers very limited choices. We have to admit that consumers need very simple reasons to buy things. Cell phones with appealing appearances are a big reason for switching to 3G. Limited choices would affect sales.
In addition, its initial market positioning toward business people was another problem. Among the 3 models, one was focused on the video phone function, and another one on the email feature. While capable of satisfying some of the requirements, these phones ignored the most fundamental requirement of the business people "making phone calls successfully". As a new entrant, WCDMA had only limited coverage. That means there were a lot of places where its signals could not reach.
In addition to the coverage of signals, there was also the problem of the compatibility between cell phones and telecom networks. Although both telecom equipment suppliers and cell phone manufacturers complied with standards, it was the first time for the two to collide head on in the business environment. Three's cell phone supplier NEC sent a team to Europe dedicatedly to assist Three to adjust the cell phones in line with the 3G networks.
The clumsy process resulted in customer complaints and damage to the Three brand. As TD-SCDMA has been away from the public sight before, its business operation ability is much doubted. Assuming the mission of promoting the Chinese standard, New China Mobile might become the last operator to launch 3G. Therefore, it is necessary to learn from existing experience and lessons, so as to avoid mistakes of other operators.
[+] Would existing GSM subscribers be its assets or liabilities?
At the new start line, do the 3 operators each carry a burden on its back? The GSM customer base of New China Mobile is both an asset and a liability. It is an asset because New China Mobile could attract those with higher value among the existing customers to become its 3G subscribers. New China Mobile has undoubted edge to promote 3G at its own existing outlets.
On the other hand, it is a liability because discounted rates will have to be offered to attract existing subscribers to use 3G services. Of course, it would be better to attract subscribers of other operators. However, if its 3G subscribers are derived from the existing GSM customer base, the total revenue would decrease. In general, with the launch of 3G, the operator would earn less, instead of more.
In summary, New China Mobile would face 3 challenges: 1) how to attract more cell phone manufacturers to make TD-SCDMA phones, ideally with enough models to cover different price levels; 2) how to maintain the existing GSM rates while attracting more users of 3G; 3) how to ensure the quality of 3G calls, i.e., how to ensure the roaming of the calls to its GSM network in areas beyond the reach of TD-SCDMA signals.
Appealing as they are, other value-added services, such as mobile Internet, won't be available before overcoming the above challenges. The much hated video phone might be only a selling point for advertising. At the late stage of the 3G war, operators around the world are no longer boasting about their value-added services. Instead, they begin to focus on voice fee rate discounts.
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